July 2024 – China’s economy is weighed down on four fronts – real estate, consumption, fiscal issues, and the private sector – and political obstacles are standing in the way of addressing these problems.

February 2024 – Nicholas Borst moderated a panel that examined how China’s new economic trajectory will impact global markets and the potential implications for investors.

February 2024 – The fallout from the end of China’s property boom will continue for many years as its effects ripple through the balance sheets of property developers, banks, and local governments.

October 2023 – To avoid a long-term slowdown in economic growth, Chinese policymakers need to change tactics and boost household consumption.

Testimony – China’s Economy: Implications for Investors

August 2023 – In testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Nicholas Borst discusses the causes of China’s economic slowdown and the risks of local government debt.

May 2023 – After a recent trip to China, Nicholas Borst reports on China’s reopening, the operating environment for the country’s private sector, and Chinese companies’ efforts to expand internationally.

May 2023 – Chinese companies are making an unprecedented effort to expand internationally, yet they face growing restrictions in the U.S. and other global markets.

March 2023 – In an article for China Leadership Monitor, Nicholas Borst examines the scale of China’s debt problem and how policymakers can put the country’s balance sheet on firmer footing.

December 2022 – Despite significant challenges facing Chinese companies, there are reasons to be optimistic that China will continue to provide attractive investment opportunities.

October 2022 – Nicholas Borst moderated a panel that examined what the strained relationship between the world’s two largest economies means for investors and businesses.

October 2022 – A growing sense of internal and external vulnerability has led Xi Jinping to emphasize security and political concerns in China’s economic policy.

August 2022 – As China faces major economic headwinds, Beijing’s attempts to stimulate growth are constrained by large contingent liabilities and a struggle for fiscal control with local governments.

May 2022 – China’s approach to repairing weak balance sheets and preventing financial instability reflects lessons learned from past crises and the current priorities of Xi Jinping.

March 2022 – China’s household balance sheet is stronger than commonly thought, but it is still vulnerable to shifts in the real estate market.

March 2022 – The risks of China’s economy and debt levels should be evaluated in the context of its national balance sheet – taking into account the interconnected assets and liabilities between households, corporations, financial institutions, and the government.

January 2022 – In an Asia Society Conference panel, Nicholas Borst explains why the U.S. and China share responsibility for the current state of the deteriorating bilateral investment relationship.

October 2021 – In response to a large and freewheeling private economy, the Chinese government under Xi Jinping is engaging in a widespread campaign to assert greater control over the private sector.

August 2021 – Efforts by Chinese regulators to stamp out risks will fall short as long as China’s financial system exists in its current suboptimal state of partial liberalization.

June 2021 – Renewed efforts to expand the Chinese Communist Party’s role in companies are antithetical to China’s desire to be treated as a modern market-based economy.

March 2021 – A rules-based and transparent approach to managing state-owned enterprises is in China’s economic interest and will provide clarity for foreign investors.

January 2021 – In an Asia Society Conference panel, Nicholas Borst explains how the increase in holdings of Chinese securities by U.S. investors has emerged as a major source of conflict in the U.S.-China economic relationship.

How Exposed Are U.S. Investors to China?

January 2021 – U.S. investors have invested more in China than the official statistics indicate, but remain less important as a financing source for Chinese companies than policymakers and the media may imagine.

Tracking China’s Foreign Debt

November 2020 – China leads the emerging markets in foreign debt, but a closer analysis reveals that China’s foreign borrowing is less risky than it appears, and is manageable relative to the size of the economy.

September 2020 – Contrary to the assertions of many critics, foreign-listed Chinese firms – particularly those listed in the U.S. – have provided attractive returns for investors over the past decade.

June 2020 – The fourth and final installment of The China Investment Dilemma: Risks for U.S. Investors During a Turbulent Time offers a disciplined approach to navigating the challenges posed by the volatile U.S.-China relationship.

June 2020 – Efforts to limit foreign investment in Chinese companies will be a significant setback for corporate reforms in China.

June 2020 – The third installment of The China Investment Dilemma: Risks for U.S. Investors During a Turbulent Time examines why the challenged U.S.-China relationship is creating a new set of risks for U.S. investors in China.

May 2020 – The second installment of The China Investment Dilemma: Risks for U.S. Investors During a Turbulent Time reviews major trends behind the deteriorating trajectory of U.S.-China bilateral relations.

April 2020 – While China’s financial system weathered the initial stages of the Covid-19 crisis well, heightened risks warrant vigilance.

April 2020 – The first installment of The China Investment Dilemma: Risks for U.S. Investors During a Turbulent Time explains how China’s emergence as a major investment destination is driven by the size, depth, and increasing openness of its capital markets.

State-owned Enterprises and Investing in China

November 2019 – State influence over companies in China defies easy categorization and depends on both ownership levels and government policy priorities.

Visualizing China’s A-Share Market Selloffs

June 2019 – China’s stock market corrections in 2015 and 2018 illustrate the volatility and peculiar tendencies of the A-share market.

China’s Hidden Government Debt

April 2019 – Local government off-balance sheet borrowing – both a channel of economic stimulus and a source of acute financial risks – complicates measurements of overall government debt in China.

Testimony – What Keeps Xi Up at Night

February 2019 – In testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Nicholas Borst describes the array of challenges facing the Chinese economy and the structural reforms that would help China achieve sustainable economic growth.

Looking Back on China’s 2018

January 2019 – China experienced a tumultuous 2018 full of headwinds that drove down equity markets and economic sentiment, but trade growth and private sector resilience remain positive long-term trends.

China’s Private Sector is Feeling the Pinch

November 2018 – While new government policies in China may ease the financing challenges faced by the private sector, truly leveling the playing field between private and state-owned enterprises will require structural reforms and take years to implement.

How Artificial Intelligence is Shaping Industries Across China

October 2018 – China has rapidly emerged as a world-class innovator in the field of artificial intelligence and is at the forefront of applying AI to solve real world business problems.

China’s Tech Rush

September 28, 2018 – China’s campaign to advance its technological capabilities has the potential to transform many emerging high-tech industries through an unprecedented level of government support and cooperation with the private sector.

How Open Are China’s Capital Markets to Foreign Investment?

September 7, 2018 – The current stock market correction in China is serving as a useful test of the commitment of policymakers to maintaining recent financial reforms in the face of financial volatility.

China’s Crackdown on Financial Risks

July 13, 2018 – Following financial shocks in China in 2015 and 2016, Chinese authorities have taken steps to reduce risks across the financial system and slow the growth rate of credit, particularly in the shadow banking system.

Fixing China’s Municipal Bond Market

June 14, 2018 – A viable municipal bond market has developed in China, in response to the growing fiscal needs of local governments – but challenges remain, including high levels of borrowing and the availability of long-term financing.

China’s Investment Numbers Don’t Add Up

May 21, 2018 – While each release of China’s fixed asset investment numbers generates news headlines, the data should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism until China completes reforms to its statistical methodology.

Forty Years Later: China in a New Era

April 26, 2018 – The recent China Development Forum celebrated China’s economic achievements, but it also highlighted a large shift occurring across China: the Communist Party’s reassertion of control over the government.

Welcome to Prevailing Winds

April 20, 2018 – For emerging markets investors, no country is more important to get right than China. Prevailing Winds will track the complex and contradictory forces that are shaping the Chinese economy.